Tesla is losing ground to Elon Musk’s other company. On Tuesday, Tesla shares dropped 1.5% in premarket trading, while SpaceX rose about 10%. This pushed SpaceX’s market value to around $2.8 trillion, increasing its lead over Tesla, which is valued at about $1.8 trillion. SpaceX shares have climbed roughly 56% from their $135 IPO price in less than a week. Here are some factors that could help Tesla catch up.
The next big event for Tesla is its second-quarter EV delivery report, expected in a few weeks. Goldman Sachs expects Tesla to deliver 420,000 vehicles, which is higher than the consensus estimate of 409,000 and above last year’s 384,000 deliveries for the same quarter. This would be a positive sign after two years of declining EV sales. Wall Street predicts Tesla will sell about 1.7 million vehicles in 2026, up from 1.6 million in 2025, but growth is not certain. The third quarter will be tough to match, since Tesla sold a record 497,000 vehicles last year, helped by buyers rushing to get the $7,500 federal EV tax credit before it ended. Goldman rates the stock as Hold with a $375 price target.
Delivery numbers are important, but investors are paying even more attention to Tesla’s progress in AI. About a year ago, Tesla started an AI-powered robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, and it now runs in four cities. Expanding to more locations would show the service is growing. Investors are also looking forward to the possible reveal of the third generation of Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot, which could happen as soon as this summer.
Tesla’s stock hasn’t dropped much in the past month, but it hasn’t kept up with the market’s focus on AI and space companies. Progress in AI will likely be needed for Tesla to catch up.
