Novo Nordisk A/S shares surged in U.S. trading after U.K. regulators cleared a triple-dose of the company’s flagship obesity drug, heightening rivalry with Eli Lilly & Co. in the $100 billion weight-loss market.
The Danish drugmaker’s American depositary receipts climbed 3.2% in premarket trading Friday following the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency’s approval of a 7.2-milligram weekly dose of semaglutide—three times the previous 2.4-mg limit. The higher dose requires three separate injections and is restricted to adult patients with obesity. Eli Lilly shares dipped 0.3%.
Market Dynamics Shift
The approval comes as Novo encounters increasing pressure from Lilly’s Zepbound, which has achieved considerable market share despite Novo’s early-mover position with semaglutide-based treatments. Ozempic received FDA approval for Type 2 diabetes in 2017, with Wegovy following for chronic weight management in 2021.
Novo’s counterstrategy centers on product diversification. The company launched an oral Wegovy formulation in the U.S. on January 5, with a U.K. regulatory decision anticipated by year-end.
Revenue Projections
Speaking at this week’s J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, Novo CEO Mike Doustdar pointed out the oral medication’s strategic importance. “Right now, we are being judged by how many patients are being switched between Eli Lilly and us,” Doustdar said. “A big part of those people don’t want an injection. They’re waiting for the pill.”
Berenberg analysts project the oral version could generate approximately $1 billion in 2025 revenue, possibly counterbalancing headwinds from U.S. pricing pressures and patent expirations. The bank’s base-case scenario forecasts $2 billion by 2027, with upside potential to $6 billion if Novo leverages its first-mover advantage.
Competitive Landscape
Lilly is developing orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 competitor expected to launch this year following last month’s FDA application submission. December data showed orforglipron enables patients to maintain weight loss after transitioning from injectable treatments, including Wegovy and Zepbound, with participants switching directly from maximum tolerated injectable doses to oral formulations.
