Tesla shares rose 0.4% on Thursday morning after the SpaceX IPO order book closed ahead of its expected trading debut on Friday. This may have eased some of the selling pressure that affected Tesla over the past week. Here’s a look at what caused Tesla’s recent losses and whether the stock’s recovery can continue once SpaceX starts trading.
Over the past week, Tesla shares dropped nearly 10%, with swings of more than 3% in either direction for four days in a row. Some believe retail investors sold Tesla stock to buy SpaceX shares. SpaceX set aside about 30% of its $75 billion IPO for retail investors, a much higher share than usual for a deal of this size. Many Tesla shareholders are loyal to Elon Musk’s vision, so it made sense that some would shift funds to SpaceX.
However, the numbers show that the direct impact was likely small. SpaceX’s retail allocation is about 2% of Tesla’s total market value, and not all the money for SpaceX shares would come from Tesla investors. The overall market also affected Tesla. The Nasdaq Composite dropped about 6% that week, and Tesla usually moves more than the market. So, a 10% to 12% drop fits Tesla’s usual pattern, even without extra selling linked to SpaceX.
Oppenheimer noted potential longer-term benefits from the relationship between the two companies, citing increased demand for stationary energy storage and potential collaboration on physical AI applications, including autonomous vehicles and robotics. The firm also noted that elevated oil prices are supporting global EV demand. The analyst carries a Hold rating on Tesla with no price target. Oppenheimer’s separate technology analyst initiated coverage of SpaceX on Thursday with a Buy rating and a $190 price target, valuing the company at approximately $2.6 trillion.
Once IPO-related volatility settles, Tesla’s stock will return to trading on its own fundamentals, centered on the commercial progress of its robotaxi service and humanoid robot programs.
