Micron shares are still rising, but a new competitor is emerging. The stock went up 0.6% in afternoon trading, adding to a gain of over 900% in the past year. At the same time, Chinese memory chip makers are quickly gaining market share, which could change the industry in the next few years. Here’s what this growth in Chinese capacity could mean for Micron investors and whether the positive outlook remains.
The biggest short-term challenge is in NAND flash memory. Yangtze Memory Technologies grew its NAND market share to 13% in the first quarter of 2026, up from 8% a year earlier, according to Counterpoint Research. This puts YMTC nearly on par with Micron and Japan’s Kioxia Holdings. YMTC has started its regulatory review before a planned IPO. According to Counterpoint Research’s director, if YMTC raises enough money and expands, it could overtake Kioxia and Micron to become the world’s third-largest NAND producer.
For now, the effect on Micron is small. About 80% of Micron’s revenue comes from DRAM, including high-bandwidth memory used in AI servers, which supports profit growth. Losing NAND market share is more of a long-term issue than an immediate risk.
BNP Paribas maintained an Outperform rating on Micron while flagging that Chinese memory players, including YMTC and ChangXin Memory Technologies, are aggressively ramping capacity, which could push consumer memory markets for both DRAM and NAND into oversupply within 1 to 2 years. The analyst noted that Micron’s current forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.6 times already implies moderating price growth, suggesting the market has partially priced in that risk.
For now, the overall positive outlook for Micron still stands. Demand for AI servers is using up the available high-bandwidth memory, and careful capacity increases by Micron and its South Korean competitors have kept prices high. However, it is becoming less certain that this stable market situation will last.
