Tesla is poised to report second-quarter delivery figures Thursday morning, capping a period marked by geopolitical conflict, a spike in oil prices, and continued fallout from shifting U.S. electric-vehicle policy.
The automaker’s shares have rallied sharply ahead of the report, a signal that investors anticipate a strong outcome. Even so, forecasts vary widely enough that traders should prepare for a volatile reaction.
Consensus estimates cluster in a broad band. Wall Street projections average around 409,000 vehicles, while a separate aggregation of estimates lands closer to 400,000. The company’s own published consensus figure sits near 406,000 units. On the high end, one closely watched independent forecaster projects sales as high as 466,000 vehicles, while another prominent analyst pegs the figure closer to 420,000.
Whatever the precise number, all projections point toward growth compared with the roughly 384,000 vehicles delivered in the same period last year. A positive result would mark a second consecutive quarter of year-over-year gains — a feat the company hasn’t managed since 2024. Growth has been elusive: annual deliveries peaked near 1.8 million vehicles in 2023 before declining in both 2024 and 2025. Current projections call for modest growth in 2026, with full-year deliveries expected to reach approximately 1.7 million vehicles.
Several factors have weighed on growth. The company opted not to launch a new low-cost EV model, instead directing resources toward an autonomous robo-taxi vehicle. Separately, the expiration of the federal EV tax credit in September stripped away a $7,500 incentive that had helped offset vehicle costs for American buyers.
Partially offsetting these headwinds was a sharp rise in gasoline prices during the quarter. Benchmark prices climbed to roughly $4.60 a gallon in May — up about $1.60 — after conflict involving Iran disrupted global oil supply. Investors appear to have priced in a favorable quarter for EV demand, as shares gained nearly 11% over the past week alone, building on a string of daily advances.
Market participants suggest deliveries would need to land near 420,000 units to sustain the current rally, while a figure closer to 466,000 — well above consensus — could trigger a further rally in the shares.
Ahead of Wednesday’s session, the stock slipped modestly in premarket trading, even as broader equity index futures ticked higher. The shares remain down roughly 6% for the year to date, a decline analysts attribute not to delivery concerns but to investor impatience over the pace of progress in artificial intelligence initiatives, including autonomous ride-hailing and robotics.
The company’s robo-taxi service, launched in Austin roughly a year ago, has since expanded to additional cities but has yet to generate meaningful revenue or profit. Investors are also awaiting an updated look at the company’s humanoid robot program.
While autonomous vehicles and robotics may represent the company’s long-term growth narrative, its core EV business remains the primary revenue driver — and a strong delivery print this week would go a long way toward reassuring markets in the near term.
